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George Parker v Chris Simpson (Fri 30 Aug 2019)

Match won by George Parker. Result: 13-11,11-2,2-11,5-11,11-2.

Starting level for George Parker: 37,247, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Simpson: 37,838, level confidence: 62%.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 2% better than George Parker.

George Parker won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Parker played 11% better than Chris Simpson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like George Parker actually played at a level of 39,531 and Chris Simpson at a level of 35,652. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Parker changes to +5.3% and Chris Simpson changes to -6.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Parker becomes +1.6% and for Chris Simpson becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Cleethorpes Invitational' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Parker: 84%, Chris Simpson: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Parker: 79%, Chris Simpson: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for George Parker: 37,799, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Chris Simpson: 37,235, level confidence: 74%.