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Rex Hedrick v Ko Youngjo (Sat 31 Aug 2019)

Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-1.

Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 33,349, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ko Youngjo: 15,694, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 112% better than Ko Youngjo.

Rex Hedrick won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played 120% better than Ko Youngjo in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rex Hedrick actually played at a level of 33,933 and Ko Youngjo at a level of 15,424. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.2% and 1.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick changes to +1.1% and Ko Youngjo changes to -1.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick becomes +0.4% and for Ko Youngjo becomes -0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Squash Melbourne Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 88%, Ko Youngjo: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 86%, Ko Youngjo: 84%.

Final level for Rex Hedrick: 33,499, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Ko Youngjo: 15,609, level confidence: 84%.