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Declan James v George Parker (Sat 31 Aug 2019)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-13,11-9,11-2,11-8.

Starting level for Declan James: 42,419, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for George Parker: 37,902, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 12% better than George Parker.

Declan James won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 29% better than George Parker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Declan James actually played at a level of 45,563 and George Parker at a level of 35,286. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to +6.9% and George Parker changes to -7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes +1.9% and for George Parker becomes -1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Cleethorpes Invitational' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 89%, George Parker: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 83%, George Parker: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 43,067, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for George Parker: 37,292, level confidence: 83%.