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Perry Malik v James Gibbins (Tue 03 Sep 2019)

Match won by Perry Malik. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-6.

Starting level for Perry Malik: 15,435, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for James Gibbins: 9,604, level confidence: 57%.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 61% better than James Gibbins.

Perry Malik won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Perry Malik played 106% better than James Gibbins in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Perry Malik actually played at a level of 17,485 and James Gibbins at a level of 8,478. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.3% and 10.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Perry Malik changes to +10.3% and James Gibbins changes to -8.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Perry Malik becomes +3% and for James Gibbins becomes -2.9%.

Given Perry Malik's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 67% has been applied to his level change.

Given James Gibbins's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Kent NW Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Perry Malik is +1.2% and for James Gibbins is -1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Perry Malik: 70%, James Gibbins: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Perry Malik: 62%, James Gibbins: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Perry Malik: 15,652, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for James Gibbins: 9,494, level confidence: 67%.