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Michael Aley v Mike Harris (Fri 06 Sep 2019)

Match won by Mike Harris. Result: 4-11,2-11,6-11.

Starting level for Michael Aley: 8,058, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mike Harris: 22,181, level confidence: 29%.
Mike Harris to win as he is currently playing 175% better than Michael Aley.

Mike Harris won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Harris played 175% better than Michael Aley in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mike Harris was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 13,626 and 22,181 without affecting his level.

In this case, Mike Harris played at level 22,160 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Michael Aley is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Harris: 54%, Michael Aley: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Harris: 54%, Michael Aley: 90%.

Final level for Michael Aley: 8,058, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Mike Harris: 22,181, level confidence: 54%.