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Raphael Kandra v Adam Pelczynski (Tue 03 Sep 2019)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-3,12-14,11-4,11-5.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 42,399, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Adam Pelczynski: 6,735, level confidence: 52%.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 530% better than Adam Pelczynski.

Raphael Kandra won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 41% better than Adam Pelczynski in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Raphael Kandra was taking it easy by anything up to 49%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,225 and 42,399 without affecting his level.

As Raphael Kandra has played below his allowed range at 10,320, his level reduction is 8.8% before damping. On the assumption that Raphael Kandra would normally have been playing at level 21,816 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Pelczynski played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 52%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.4% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to -3.4% and Adam Pelczynski changes to +18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes -1.2% and for Adam Pelczynski becomes +5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Individual Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 71%, Adam Pelczynski: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 34%, Adam Pelczynski: 34%.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 41,886, level confidence: 34%.
Final level for Adam Pelczynski: 7,096, level confidence: 34%.