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Borja Golan v Lukas Windischberger (Tue 03 Sep 2019)

Match won by Borja Golan. Result: 11-3,11-9,11-3.

Starting level for Borja Golan: 39,799, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for Lukas Windischberger: 9,170, level confidence: 50%.
Borja Golan to win as he is currently playing 334% better than Lukas Windischberger.

Borja Golan won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Borja Golan played 120% better than Lukas Windischberger in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Borja Golan was taking it easy by anything up to 37%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,654 and 39,799 without affecting his level.

In this case, Borja Golan played at level 22,440 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Borja Golan would normally have been playing at level 24,960 (based on typical behaviour), Lukas Windischberger played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Borja Golan changes to 0% and Lukas Windischberger changes to +4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Borja Golan becomes 0% and for Lukas Windischberger becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Individual Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Borja Golan: 69%, Lukas Windischberger: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Borja Golan: 49%, Lukas Windischberger: 50%.

Final level for Borja Golan: 39,799, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Lukas Windischberger: 9,354, level confidence: 50%.