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Lucas Serme v Karim Ali Fathi (Wed 04 Sep 2019)

Match won by Lucas Serme. Result: 12-10,11-8,4-11,11-2.

Starting level for Lucas Serme: 39,191, level confidence: 37%.
Starting level for Karim Ali Fathi: 36,140, level confidence: 49%.
Lucas Serme to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Karim Ali Fathi.

Lucas Serme won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lucas Serme played 24% better than Karim Ali Fathi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lucas Serme actually played at a level of 41,942 and Karim Ali Fathi at a level of 33,769. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lucas Serme changes to +6.7% and Karim Ali Fathi changes to -5.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lucas Serme becomes +1.8% and for Karim Ali Fathi becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lucas Serme: 61%, Karim Ali Fathi: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lucas Serme: 57%, Karim Ali Fathi: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lucas Serme: 39,790, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Karim Ali Fathi: 35,634, level confidence: 65%.