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Leo Au v Cesar Salazar (Thu 05 Sep 2019)

Match won by Leo Au. Result: 11-13,9-11,13-11,12-10,11-9.

Starting level for Leo Au: 43,482, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 41,952, level confidence: 61%.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Cesar Salazar.

Leo Au won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played 8% better than Cesar Salazar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leo Au actually played at a level of 44,473 and Cesar Salazar at a level of 41,017. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to +1.7% and Cesar Salazar changes to -2.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes +0.6% and for Cesar Salazar becomes -0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 89%, Cesar Salazar: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 87%, Cesar Salazar: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leo Au: 43,644, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Cesar Salazar: 41,631, level confidence: 76%.