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Patrick Rooney v Sergio Garcia Pollan (Thu 05 Sep 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-2.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 31,254, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Sergio Garcia Pollan: 11,197, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 179% better than Sergio Garcia Pollan.

Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 136% better than Sergio Garcia Pollan in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Patrick Rooney was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,983 and 31,254 without affecting his level.

In this case, Patrick Rooney played at level 26,393 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Sergio Garcia Pollan is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 83%, Sergio Garcia Pollan: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 76%, Sergio Garcia Pollan: 78%.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 31,254, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Sergio Garcia Pollan: 11,197, level confidence: 78%.