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Patrick Rooney v David Baillargeon (Fri 06 Sep 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 31,449, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Baillargeon: 26,065, level confidence: 63%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 21% better than David Baillargeon.

Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 120% better than David Baillargeon in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Rooney actually played at a level of 42,466 and David Baillargeon at a level of 19,303. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to +26% and David Baillargeon changes to -31%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes +5.4% and for David Baillargeon becomes -6.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that David Baillargeon is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 87%, David Baillargeon: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 64%, David Baillargeon: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 32,842, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for David Baillargeon: 24,794, level confidence: 59%.