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Ali Farag v Saurav Ghosal (Sat 07 Sep 2019)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-4,11-9,11-4.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 70,934, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 51,215, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Saurav Ghosal.

Ali Farag won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 94% better than Saurav Ghosal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ali Farag actually played at a level of 83,977 and Saurav Ghosal at a level of 43,261. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to +15% and Saurav Ghosal changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes +3.1% and for Saurav Ghosal becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 78%, Saurav Ghosal: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 66%, Saurav Ghosal: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 72,589, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 50,057, level confidence: 72%.