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Raphael Kandra v Borja Golan (Sat 07 Sep 2019)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-6,11-8,7-11,7-11,12-10.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 41,017, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Borja Golan: 41,652, level confidence: 48%.
Borja Golan to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Raphael Kandra.

Raphael Kandra won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 9% better than Borja Golan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raphael Kandra actually played at a level of 43,071 and Borja Golan at a level of 39,665. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to +3.7% and Borja Golan changes to -5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes +1.3% and for Borja Golan becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Individual Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 80%, Borja Golan: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 76%, Borja Golan: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 41,517, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Borja Golan: 41,079, level confidence: 66%.