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Patrick Rooney v Tom Ford (Sun 08 Sep 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-6,6-11,12-10,11-5.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 32,972, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Ford: 27,954, level confidence: 61%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Tom Ford.

Patrick Rooney won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 25% better than Tom Ford in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Rooney actually played at a level of 33,943 and Tom Ford at a level of 27,154. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to +2.1% and Tom Ford changes to -2.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes +0.8% and for Tom Ford becomes -1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 89%, Tom Ford: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 87%, Tom Ford: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 33,086, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Tom Ford: 27,785, level confidence: 76%.