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Patrick Fitzpatrick v Peter Ginty (Wed 11 Sep 2019)

Match won by Patrick Fitzpatrick. Result: 11-2,11-2.

Starting level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 3,927, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for Peter Ginty: 1,087, level confidence: 58%.
Patrick Fitzpatrick to win as he is currently playing 261% better than Peter Ginty.

Patrick Fitzpatrick won all of the games and 85% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 450% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Fitzpatrick played 450% better than Peter Ginty in this match.

Patrick Fitzpatrick has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 4420. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Fitzpatrick actually played at a level of 5,141 and Peter Ginty at a level of 935. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.8% and 7.8% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 5.8% and 5.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to +5.8% and Peter Ginty changes to -4.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes +2.6% and for Peter Ginty becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Manx Telecom Dave Karren Memorial 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick is +16%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 65%, Peter Ginty: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 53%, Peter Ginty: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 4,533, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Peter Ginty: 1,049, level confidence: 62%.