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Patrick Fitzpatrick v Jason Blue (Thu 12 Sep 2019)

Match won by Jason Blue. Result: 11-8,15-17,9-11,11-8,7-11.

Starting level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 4,909, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Jason Blue: 4,537, level confidence: 58%.
Patrick Fitzpatrick to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Jason Blue.

Jason Blue won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jason Blue played 8% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jason Blue actually played at a level of 4,915 and Patrick Fitzpatrick at a level of 4,532. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jason Blue changes to +6.8% and Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to -8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jason Blue becomes +2.9% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Manx Telecom Dave Karren Memorial 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jason Blue: 76%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jason Blue: 70%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 4,804, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Jason Blue: 4,663, level confidence: 70%.