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Hamish Thornton v Patrick Fitzpatrick (Sat 14 Sep 2019)

Match won by Patrick Fitzpatrick. Result: 13-11,9-11,13-11,10-12,8-11.

Starting level for Hamish Thornton: 3,806, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 4,781, level confidence: 65%.
Patrick Fitzpatrick to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Hamish Thornton.

Patrick Fitzpatrick won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Fitzpatrick played 9% better than Hamish Thornton in this match.

As Patrick Fitzpatrick has played below his allowed range at 4,376, his level reduction is 5.6% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Fitzpatrick would normally have been playing at level 4,700 (based on typical behaviour), Hamish Thornton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 5.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to -5% and Hamish Thornton changes to +4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes -2.4% and for Hamish Thornton becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Manx Telecom Dave Karren Memorial 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 80%, Hamish Thornton: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 75%, Hamish Thornton: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hamish Thornton: 3,894, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 4,663, level confidence: 75%.