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Karen Powell v Piers Chadwick (Fri 13 Sep 2019)

Match won by Piers Chadwick. Result: 17-15,15-12,13-15,3-15,9-15.

Starting level for Karen Powell: 715, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Piers Chadwick: 854, level confidence: 34%.
Piers Chadwick to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Karen Powell.

Piers Chadwick won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Piers Chadwick played 14% better than Karen Powell in this match.

As Piers Chadwick has played below his allowed range at 826, his level reduction is 1.2% before damping. On the assumption that Piers Chadwick would normally have been playing at level 846 (based on typical behaviour), Karen Powell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.8%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Piers Chadwick changes to -1.1% and Karen Powell changes to +0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Piers Chadwick becomes -1.1% and for Karen Powell becomes +0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Piers Chadwick is -0.8% and for Karen Powell is +0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Piers Chadwick: 58%, Karen Powell: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Piers Chadwick: 57%, Karen Powell: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karen Powell: 721, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Piers Chadwick: 849, level confidence: 57%.