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Michael Aley v Ben Claypole (Sun 15 Sep 2019)

Match won by Michael Aley. Result: 15-9,15-8.

Starting level for Michael Aley: 7,961, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Ben Claypole: 4,737, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Michael Aley to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Ben Claypole.

Michael Aley won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 76% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Aley played 76% better than Ben Claypole in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Aley actually played at a level of 8,158 and Ben Claypole at a level of 4,623. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 1.9% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 1.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Aley changes to +1.4% and Ben Claypole changes to -1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Aley becomes +0.7% and for Ben Claypole becomes -0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'SSP Graded' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Aley: 74%, Ben Claypole: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Aley: 72%, Ben Claypole: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Aley: 8,008, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Ben Claypole: 4,699, level confidence: 82%.