Michael Aley v Lewis Milner (Sun 15 Sep 2019)
Match won by Michael Aley. Result: 15-5,15-9.
Starting level for
Michael Aley:
8,010, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Lewis Milner:
5,916, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Michael Aley to win as he is currently playing
35% better than Lewis Milner.
Michael Aley won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Aley played
114% better than Lewis Milner in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Aley actually played at a level of
10,077 and Lewis Milner at a level of
4,703. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Aley changes to +16% and Lewis Milner changes to -16%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Aley becomes +4.7% and for Lewis Milner becomes -5.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'SSP Graded' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Aley: 85%, Lewis Milner: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Aley: 68%, Lewis Milner: 67%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Michael Aley:
8,376, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Lewis Milner:
5,626, level confidence: 67%.