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Michael Aley v Stefan Stanton (Sun 15 Sep 2019)

Match won by Michael Aley. Result: 11-13,11-3,7-11,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Michael Aley: 8,378, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Stefan Stanton: 7,954, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Michael Aley to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Stefan Stanton.

Michael Aley won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Aley played 15% better than Stefan Stanton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Aley actually played at a level of 8,761 and Stefan Stanton at a level of 7,606. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Aley changes to +4.5% and Stefan Stanton changes to -4.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Aley becomes +1.9% and for Stefan Stanton becomes -1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'SSP Graded' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Aley: 82%, Stefan Stanton: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Aley: 79%, Stefan Stanton: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Aley: 8,534, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Stefan Stanton: 7,802, level confidence: 82%.