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Benjamin Aubert v Raphael Kandra (Tue 10 Sep 2019)

Match won by Benjamin Aubert. Result: 10-12,13-11,12-10.

Starting level for Benjamin Aubert: 30,183, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 41,517, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Benjamin Aubert.

Benjamin Aubert won 67% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Benjamin Aubert played 13% better than Raphael Kandra in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Benjamin Aubert actually played at a level of 37,635 and Raphael Kandra at a level of 33,296. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Benjamin Aubert changes to +15% and Raphael Kandra changes to -10%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Benjamin Aubert becomes +3.5% and for Raphael Kandra becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open De France' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Benjamin Aubert: 72%, Raphael Kandra: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Benjamin Aubert: 58%, Raphael Kandra: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Benjamin Aubert: 31,189, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra: 40,662, level confidence: 70%.