Leung Chi Hin Henry v Ivan Yuen (Wed 11 Sep 2019)
Match won by Leung Chi Hin Henry. Result: 9-11,13-11,11-9,11-9.
Starting level for
Leung Chi Hin Henry:
25,986, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Ivan Yuen:
32,487, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Ivan Yuen to win as he is currently playing
25% better than Leung Chi Hin Henry.
Leung Chi Hin Henry won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leung Chi Hin Henry played
20% better than Ivan Yuen in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leung Chi Hin Henry actually played at a level of
31,835 and Ivan Yuen at a level of
26,518. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leung Chi Hin Henry changes to +20% and Ivan Yuen changes to -16%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leung Chi Hin Henry becomes +4.5% and for Ivan Yuen becomes -3.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA HKFC International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leung Chi Hin Henry: 78%, Ivan Yuen: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leung Chi Hin Henry: 64%, Ivan Yuen: 70%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Leung Chi Hin Henry:
27,074, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Ivan Yuen:
31,393, level confidence: 70%.