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Tsz Kwan Lau v Leo Au (Wed 11 Sep 2019)

Match won by Tsz Kwan Lau. Result: 11-9,11-7,12-10.

Starting level for Tsz Kwan Lau: 25,213, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Leo Au: 44,328, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 76% better than Tsz Kwan Lau.

Tsz Kwan Lau won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tsz Kwan Lau played 39% better than Leo Au in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tsz Kwan Lau actually played at a level of 39,381 and Leo Au at a level of 28,380. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 56% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 40% and 40% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tsz Kwan Lau changes to +40% and Leo Au changes to -34%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tsz Kwan Lau becomes +7.9% and for Leo Au becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA HKFC International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tsz Kwan Lau is limited to +6.1% and Leo Au is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tsz Kwan Lau: 84%, Leo Au: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tsz Kwan Lau: 54%, Leo Au: 57%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tsz Kwan Lau: 26,720, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Leo Au: 43,011, level confidence: 57%.