Gregoire Marche v Nathan Lake (Wed 11 Sep 2019)
Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-4,11-4.
Starting level for
Gregoire Marche:
51,051, level confidence: 34%.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
34,003, level confidence: 37%.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing
50% better than Nathan Lake.
Gregoire Marche won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played
175% better than Nathan Lake in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregoire Marche actually played at a level of
69,092 and Nathan Lake at a level of
25,124. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to +20% and Nathan Lake changes to -19%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes +4% and for Nathan Lake becomes -4.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open De France' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 59%, Nathan Lake: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 43%, Nathan Lake: 45%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Gregoire Marche:
52,660, level confidence: 43%.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
32,872, level confidence: 45%.