Zahed Mohamed v Youssef Soliman (Wed 11 Sep 2019)
Match won by Zahed Mohamed. Result: 9-11,11-9,11-5.
Starting level for
Zahed Mohamed:
45,809, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Youssef Soliman:
35,422, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Zahed Mohamed to win as he is currently playing
29% better than Youssef Soliman.
Zahed Mohamed won 67% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zahed Mohamed played
22% better than Youssef Soliman in this match.
As Zahed Mohamed has played below his allowed range at 43,535, his level reduction is 0.7% before damping. On the assumption that Zahed Mohamed would normally have been playing at level 44,823 (based on typical behaviour), Youssef Soliman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.8%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 1.6% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 1.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed changes to -0.5% and Youssef Soliman changes to +1.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed becomes -0.2% and for Youssef Soliman becomes +0.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open De France' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zahed Mohamed: 79%, Youssef Soliman: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zahed Mohamed: 76%, Youssef Soliman: 82%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Zahed Mohamed:
45,561, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman:
35,659, level confidence: 82%.