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Victor Crouin v Noah Browne (Thu 12 Sep 2019)

Match won by Victor Crouin. Result: 11-3,10-12,11-9,11-2.

Starting level for Victor Crouin: 36,744, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Noah Browne: 12,571, level confidence: 51%.
Victor Crouin to win as he is currently playing 192% better than Noah Browne.

Victor Crouin won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Victor Crouin played 38% better than Noah Browne in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Victor Crouin was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 21,473 and 36,744 without affecting his level.

As Victor Crouin has played below his allowed range at 19,324, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Victor Crouin would normally have been playing at level 28,089 (based on typical behaviour), Noah Browne played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 27%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.4% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Victor Crouin changes to -4.9% and Noah Browne changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Victor Crouin becomes -1.5% and for Noah Browne becomes +4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Marietta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Victor Crouin: 81%, Noah Browne: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Victor Crouin: 56%, Noah Browne: 49%.

Final level for Victor Crouin: 36,188, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Noah Browne: 13,090, level confidence: 49%.