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Tsz Fung Yip v Lucas Serme (Thu 12 Sep 2019)

Match won by Tsz Fung Yip. Result: 12-10,11-8,10-12,2-11,11-4.

Starting level for Tsz Fung Yip: 36,711, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lucas Serme: 41,744, level confidence: 64%.
Lucas Serme to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Tsz Fung Yip.

Tsz Fung Yip won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tsz Fung Yip played 8% better than Lucas Serme in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tsz Fung Yip actually played at a level of 40,693 and Lucas Serme at a level of 37,659. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip changes to +8.8% and Lucas Serme changes to -10.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip becomes +2.2% and for Lucas Serme becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA HKFC International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tsz Fung Yip: 86%, Lucas Serme: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tsz Fung Yip: 77%, Lucas Serme: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tsz Fung Yip: 37,480, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Lucas Serme: 40,753, level confidence: 72%.