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Victor Crouin v Leonel Cardenas (Sat 14 Sep 2019)

Match won by Victor Crouin. Result: 6-11,9-11,11-9,11-9,11-6.

Starting level for Victor Crouin: 37,017, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Leonel Cardenas: 27,541, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Victor Crouin to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Leonel Cardenas.

Victor Crouin won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Victor Crouin played 9% better than Leonel Cardenas in this match.

As Victor Crouin has played below his allowed range at 32,345, his level reduction is 8.2% before damping. On the assumption that Victor Crouin would normally have been playing at level 35,986 (based on typical behaviour), Leonel Cardenas played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7% and 8.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Victor Crouin changes to -7% and Leonel Cardenas changes to +6.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Victor Crouin becomes -1.9% and for Leonel Cardenas becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Marietta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Victor Crouin: 81%, Leonel Cardenas: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Victor Crouin: 73%, Leonel Cardenas: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Victor Crouin: 36,306, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Leonel Cardenas: 28,114, level confidence: 82%.