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Douglas Jacobsson v Steve Baker (Mon 16 Sep 2019)

Match won by Steve Baker. Result: 6-15,15-13,13-15,3-15.

Starting level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,959, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Steve Baker: 2,122, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Douglas Jacobsson.

Steve Baker won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Baker played 35% better than Douglas Jacobsson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Baker actually played at a level of 2,373 and Douglas Jacobsson at a level of 1,752. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Baker changes to +7.1% and Douglas Jacobsson changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Baker becomes +3.8% and for Douglas Jacobsson becomes -5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Steve Baker is +2.8% and for Douglas Jacobsson is -4.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Baker: 84%, Douglas Jacobsson: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Baker: 75%, Douglas Jacobsson: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,880, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Steve Baker: 2,179, level confidence: 75%.