SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Richard Horswill v Michael Aley (Thu 12 Sep 2019)

Match won by Michael Aley. Result: 12-10,6-11,6-11,6-11.

Starting level for Richard Horswill: 4,593, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Michael Aley: 8,082, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Michael Aley to win as he is currently playing 76% better than Richard Horswill.

Michael Aley won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Aley played 31% better than Richard Horswill in this match.

As Michael Aley has played below his allowed range at 6,308, his level reduction is 4.8% before damping. On the assumption that Michael Aley would normally have been playing at level 7,392 (based on typical behaviour), Richard Horswill played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.6% and 8.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Aley changes to -2.8% and Richard Horswill changes to +8.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Aley becomes -1.5% and for Richard Horswill becomes +3.3%.

Given Michael Aley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Essex Mens Autumn League 2019' so the adjustment for Michael Aley is -1% and for Richard Horswill is +2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Aley: 94%, Richard Horswill: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Aley: 81%, Richard Horswill: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard Horswill: 4,699, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Michael Aley: 7,991, level confidence: 81%.