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Mark McEwen v Michael Aley (Mon 16 Sep 2019)

Match won by Mark McEwen. Result: 4-11,3-11,11-5,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Mark McEwen: 7,019, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Michael Aley: 8,534, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Michael Aley to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Mark McEwen.

Mark McEwen won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark McEwen played 6% better than Michael Aley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark McEwen actually played at a level of 7,959 and Michael Aley at a level of 7,526. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark McEwen changes to +12% and Michael Aley changes to -9.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark McEwen becomes +4% and for Michael Aley becomes -3.1%.

Given Mark McEwen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.9% has been applied to his level change.

Given Michael Aley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Essex Mens Autumn League 2019' so the adjustment for Mark McEwen is +2.8% and for Michael Aley is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark McEwen: 78%, Michael Aley: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark McEwen: 69%, Michael Aley: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark McEwen: 7,202, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Michael Aley: 8,351, level confidence: 78%.