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Malcolm Levy v Thomas Whiteway (Thu 19 Sep 2019)

Match won by Thomas Whiteway. Result: 11-8,6-11,11-5,2-11,6-11.

Starting level for Malcolm Levy: 4,494, level confidence: 29%.
Starting level for Thomas Whiteway: 4,999, level confidence: 69%.
Thomas Whiteway to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Malcolm Levy.

Thomas Whiteway won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Thomas Whiteway played 14% better than Malcolm Levy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Thomas Whiteway actually played at a level of 5,071 and Malcolm Levy at a level of 4,431. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Thomas Whiteway changes to +0.6% and Malcolm Levy changes to -1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Thomas Whiteway becomes +0.3% and for Malcolm Levy becomes -0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Thomas Whiteway is 0% and for Malcolm Levy is -0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Thomas Whiteway: 83%, Malcolm Levy: 54%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Thomas Whiteway: 82%, Malcolm Levy: 53%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Malcolm Levy: 4,460, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Thomas Whiteway: 5,004, level confidence: 82%.