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Richard Newbatt v Hassan Taher El-Barbary (Fri 20 Sep 2019)

Match won by Richard Newbatt. Result: 15-9,13-15,15-13,15-7.

Starting level for Richard Newbatt: 1,322, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for Hassan Taher El-Barbary: 790, level confidence: 10%.
Richard Newbatt to win as he is currently playing 67% better than Hassan Taher El-Barbary.

Richard Newbatt won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Newbatt played 27% better than Hassan Taher El-Barbary in this match.

As Richard Newbatt has played below his allowed range at 1,059, his level reduction is 5.4% before damping. On the assumption that Richard Newbatt would normally have been playing at level 1,226 (based on typical behaviour), Hassan Taher El-Barbary played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Newbatt changes to -4.1% and Hassan Taher El-Barbary changes to +8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Newbatt becomes -3.2% and for Hassan Taher El-Barbary becomes +5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Richard Newbatt is -2.4% and for Hassan Taher El-Barbary is +4.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Newbatt: 32%, Hassan Taher El-Barbary: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Newbatt: 28%, Hassan Taher El-Barbary: 28%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard Newbatt: 1,294, level confidence: 28%.
Final level for Hassan Taher El-Barbary: 824, level confidence: 28%.