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Greg Lobban v Guillaume Plancke (Wed 18 Sep 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-2.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 42,767, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Guillaume Plancke: 6,245, level confidence: 43%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 585% better than Guillaume Plancke.

Greg Lobban won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 175% better than Guillaume Plancke in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Greg Lobban was taking it easy by anything up to 51%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,409 and 42,767 without affecting his level.

In this case, Greg Lobban played at level 19,035 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Greg Lobban would normally have been playing at level 21,098 (based on typical behaviour), Guillaume Plancke played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to 0% and Guillaume Plancke changes to +4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes 0% and for Guillaume Plancke becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ECC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 78%, Guillaume Plancke: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 49%, Guillaume Plancke: 42%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 42,766, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Guillaume Plancke: 6,366, level confidence: 42%.