Raphael Kandra v Miguel Mathis (Wed 18 Sep 2019)
Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-4.
Starting level for
Raphael Kandra:
40,715, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Miguel Mathis:
11,878, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing
243% better than Miguel Mathis.
Raphael Kandra won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played
175% better than Miguel Mathis in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Raphael Kandra was taking it easy by anything up to 29%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 20,565 and 40,715 without affecting his level.
In this case, Raphael Kandra played at level 32,665 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Miguel Mathis is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 82%, Miguel Mathis: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 74%, Miguel Mathis: 78%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Raphael Kandra:
40,690, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Miguel Mathis:
11,871, level confidence: 78%.