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Greg Lobban v Nigel Peyton (Thu 19 Sep 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-1,11-3,11-4.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 42,766, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Nigel Peyton: 12,130, level confidence: 51%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 253% better than Nigel Peyton.

Greg Lobban won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 313% better than Nigel Peyton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of 46,259 and Nigel Peyton at a level of 11,214. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.3% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +4.3% and Nigel Peyton changes to -4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +1.4% and for Nigel Peyton becomes -1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ECC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 70%, Nigel Peyton: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 65%, Nigel Peyton: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 43,285, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Nigel Peyton: 11,907, level confidence: 66%.