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Jaakko V?H?Maa v Greg Lobban (Thu 19 Sep 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 5-11,5-11,6-11.

Starting level for Jaakko V?H?Maa: 13,312, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 43,169, level confidence: 65%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 224% better than Jaakko V?H?Maa.

Greg Lobban won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 106% better than Jaakko V?H?Maa in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Greg Lobban was taking it easy by anything up to 27%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 22,990 and 43,169 without affecting his level.

In this case, Greg Lobban played at level 29,410 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Greg Lobban would normally have been playing at level 31,503 (based on typical behaviour), Jaakko V?H?Maa played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to 0% and Jaakko V?H?Maa changes to +3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes 0% and for Jaakko V?H?Maa becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ECC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 80%, Jaakko V?H?Maa: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 64%, Jaakko V?H?Maa: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jaakko V?H?Maa: 13,506, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 43,104, level confidence: 64%.