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Jon Shepherd v Steve Baker (Thu 26 Sep 2019)

Match won by Steve Baker. Result: 7-11,5-11,8-11.

Starting level for Jon Shepherd: 1,414, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steve Baker: 2,182, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Jon Shepherd.

Steve Baker won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Baker played 65% better than Jon Shepherd in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Baker actually played at a level of 2,256 and Jon Shepherd at a level of 1,367. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 2.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Baker changes to +2.7% and Jon Shepherd changes to -2.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Baker becomes +2% and for Jon Shepherd becomes -1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Steve Baker is +1.5% and for Jon Shepherd is -1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Baker: 85%, Jon Shepherd: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Baker: 82%, Jon Shepherd: 91%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jon Shepherd: 1,392, level confidence: 91%.
Final level for Steve Baker: 2,212, level confidence: 82%.