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Patrick Fitzpatrick v Ashley Sandyford-Sykes (Thu 26 Sep 2019)

Match won by Ashley Sandyford-Sykes. Result: 8-11,9-11,4-11.

Starting level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 4,585, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ashley Sandyford-Sykes: 5,379, level confidence: 41%.
Ashley Sandyford-Sykes to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick.

Ashley Sandyford-Sykes won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ashley Sandyford-Sykes played 56% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ashley Sandyford-Sykes actually played at a level of 6,211 and Patrick Fitzpatrick at a level of 3,971. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ashley Sandyford-Sykes changes to +14% and Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to -7.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ashley Sandyford-Sykes becomes +4.8% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes -3%.

Given Ashley Sandyford-Sykes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.6% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Ashley Sandyford-Sykes is +3.5% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ashley Sandyford-Sykes: 64%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ashley Sandyford-Sykes: 55%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 4,477, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Ashley Sandyford-Sykes: 5,561, level confidence: 55%.