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Mathieu Castagnet v Ramit Tandon (Thu 26 Sep 2019)

Match won by Mathieu Castagnet. Result: 12-10,4-11,11-5.

Starting level for Mathieu Castagnet: 43,515, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ramit Tandon: 33,479, level confidence: 59%.
Mathieu Castagnet to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Ramit Tandon.

Mathieu Castagnet won 67% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mathieu Castagnet played 12% better than Ramit Tandon in this match.

As Mathieu Castagnet has played below his allowed range at 39,478, his level reduction is 5.4% before damping. On the assumption that Mathieu Castagnet would normally have been playing at level 42,543 (based on typical behaviour), Ramit Tandon played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.7% and 5.7% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 3.5% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet changes to -2.8% and Ramit Tandon changes to +4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet becomes -1.1% and for Ramit Tandon becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mathieu Castagnet: 85%, Ramit Tandon: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mathieu Castagnet: 79%, Ramit Tandon: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mathieu Castagnet: 43,067, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Ramit Tandon: 34,037, level confidence: 71%.