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Raphael Kandra v Iker Pajares (Thu 26 Sep 2019)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-9,11-4.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 39,590, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Iker Pajares: 40,122, level confidence: 64%.
Iker Pajares to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Raphael Kandra.

Raphael Kandra won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 69% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 69% better than Iker Pajares in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raphael Kandra actually played at a level of 51,847 and Iker Pajares at a level of 30,637. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to +22% and Iker Pajares changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes +4.5% and for Iker Pajares becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 77%, Iker Pajares: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 59%, Iker Pajares: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 41,233, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Iker Pajares: 38,698, level confidence: 61%.