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Rui Soares v Mahesh Mangaonkar (Thu 26 Sep 2019)

Match won by Rui Soares. Result: 11-13,11-9,1-11,11-5,11-7.

Starting level for Rui Soares: 26,687, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 35,213, level confidence: 61%.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Rui Soares.

Rui Soares won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rui Soares played 8% better than Mahesh Mangaonkar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rui Soares actually played at a level of 31,784 and Mahesh Mangaonkar at a level of 29,566. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rui Soares changes to +13% and Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rui Soares becomes +3.3% and for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rui Soares: 87%, Mahesh Mangaonkar: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rui Soares: 73%, Mahesh Mangaonkar: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rui Soares: 27,565, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 34,541, level confidence: 66%.