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Ivan Yuen v Ong Sai Hung (Thu 26 Sep 2019)

Match won by Ivan Yuen. Result: 11-3,11-7,11-2.

Starting level for Ivan Yuen: 31,526, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Ong Sai Hung: 16,599, level confidence: 57%.
Ivan Yuen to win as he is currently playing 90% better than Ong Sai Hung.

Ivan Yuen won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ivan Yuen played 175% better than Ong Sai Hung in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ivan Yuen actually played at a level of 37,935 and Ong Sai Hung at a level of 13,795. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ivan Yuen changes to +12% and Ong Sai Hung changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ivan Yuen becomes +3% and for Ong Sai Hung becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ivan Yuen: 81%, Ong Sai Hung: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ivan Yuen: 67%, Ong Sai Hung: 63%.

Final level for Ivan Yuen: 32,463, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Ong Sai Hung: 15,994, level confidence: 63%.