Ivan Yuen v Ong Sai Hung (Thu 26 Sep 2019)
Match won by Ivan Yuen. Result: 11-3,11-7,11-2.
Starting level for
Ivan Yuen:
31,526, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Ong Sai Hung:
16,599, level confidence: 57%.
Ivan Yuen to win as he is currently playing
90% better than Ong Sai Hung.
Ivan Yuen won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ivan Yuen played
175% better than Ong Sai Hung in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ivan Yuen actually played at a level of
37,935 and Ong Sai Hung at a level of
13,795. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ivan Yuen changes to +12% and Ong Sai Hung changes to -14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ivan Yuen becomes +3% and for Ong Sai Hung becomes -3.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ivan Yuen: 81%, Ong Sai Hung: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ivan Yuen: 67%, Ong Sai Hung: 63%.
Final level for Ivan Yuen:
32,463, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Ong Sai Hung:
15,994, level confidence: 63%.