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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Mathieu Castagnet (Fri 27 Sep 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-9,11-7.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 67,932, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Mathieu Castagnet: 42,975, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Mathieu Castagnet.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 43% better than Mathieu Castagnet in this match.

In this case, Mohamed Elshorbagy played at level 62,725 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mohamed Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 63,899 (based on typical behaviour), Mathieu Castagnet played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.5% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to 0% and Mathieu Castagnet changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes 0% and for Mathieu Castagnet becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 83%, Mathieu Castagnet: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 79%, Mathieu Castagnet: 84%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 67,909, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Mathieu Castagnet: 43,425, level confidence: 84%.