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Miguel Rodriguez v Alan Clyne (Sat 28 Sep 2019)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 11-3,11-6.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 48,169, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Alan Clyne: 45,470, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Alan Clyne.

Miguel Rodriguez won all of the games and 71% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 144% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 144% better than Alan Clyne in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miguel Rodriguez actually played at a level of 73,171 and Alan Clyne at a level of 29,933. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 52% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 36% and 36% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to +36% and Alan Clyne changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes +6.4% and for Alan Clyne becomes -4.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Miguel Rodriguez is limited to +5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 80%, Alan Clyne: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 53%, Alan Clyne: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 50,628, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Alan Clyne: 43,668, level confidence: 61%.