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Oliver Wait v Steve Baker (Mon 30 Sep 2019)

Match won by Steve Baker. Result: 12-15,15-12,14-15,11-15.

Starting level for Oliver Wait: 1,614, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steve Baker: 2,212, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Oliver Wait.

Steve Baker won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Baker played 20% better than Oliver Wait in this match.

As Steve Baker has played below his allowed range at 1,997, his level reduction is 3.2% before damping. On the assumption that Steve Baker would normally have been playing at level 2,143 (based on typical behaviour), Oliver Wait played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 4.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Baker changes to -2.4% and Oliver Wait changes to +4.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Baker becomes -1.8% and for Oliver Wait becomes +3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Steve Baker is -1.4% and for Oliver Wait is +2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Baker: 90%, Oliver Wait: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Baker: 84%, Oliver Wait: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Wait: 1,649, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Steve Baker: 2,179, level confidence: 84%.