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Adam Turner v Patrick Rooney (Tue 01 Oct 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 5-11,2-11,5-11.

Starting level for Adam Turner: 12,531, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 33,086, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 164% better than Adam Turner.

Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 175% better than Adam Turner in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Rooney actually played at a level of 33,766 and Adam Turner at a level of 12,279. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 1.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to +0.7% and Adam Turner changes to -1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes +0.3% and for Adam Turner becomes -0.6%.

Given Patrick Rooney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 59% has been applied to his level change.

Given Adam Turner's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Patrick Rooney is 0% and for Adam Turner is -0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 89%, Adam Turner: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 87%, Adam Turner: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adam Turner: 12,517, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 33,214, level confidence: 87%.