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Michael Aley v Jon Matthews (Tue 24 Sep 2019)

Match won by Michael Aley. Result: 8-11,11-8,10-12,13-11,11-9.

Starting level for Michael Aley: 8,340, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jon Matthews: 7,495, level confidence: 49%.
Michael Aley to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Jon Matthews.

Michael Aley won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Aley played 8% better than Jon Matthews in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Aley actually played at a level of 8,235 and Jon Matthews at a level of 7,591. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Aley changes to -0.8% and Jon Matthews changes to +1.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Aley becomes -0.4% and for Jon Matthews becomes +0.6%.

Given Michael Aley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jon Matthews's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Essex Mens Autumn League 2019' so the adjustment for Michael Aley is 0% and for Jon Matthews is +0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Aley: 87%, Jon Matthews: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Aley: 86%, Jon Matthews: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Aley: 8,305, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Jon Matthews: 7,517, level confidence: 69%.