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Patrick Rooney v Sam Todd (Wed 02 Oct 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-5,11-3,11-4.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 33,214, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Sam Todd: 20,277, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Sam Todd.

Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 175% better than Sam Todd in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Rooney actually played at a level of 43,036 and Sam Todd at a level of 15,649. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to +19% and Sam Todd changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes +4.1% and for Sam Todd becomes -5.2%.

Given Patrick Rooney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 60% has been applied to his level change.

Given Sam Todd's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 40% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Patrick Rooney is +1.9% and for Sam Todd is -2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 93%, Sam Todd: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 72%, Sam Todd: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 33,941, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Sam Todd: 19,921, level confidence: 66%.